2016 Early Warning Forecast

Map listing countries with potential crises and those with hope.
The 2016 Early Warning Forecast is an analysis prepared by the staff of Lutheran World Relief that includes the regions we are monitoring to be prepared for potential crises, as well as the work we are doing in these areas and measures we are advocating to address these challenges.

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Download the 2016 Early Warning Forecast (.pdf)

What Lutheran World Relief is Watching for:

Picture of woman carrying water
SYRIA, AFGHANISTAN, SOMALIA | Migration

We are witnessing a global level of migration not seen since the end of World War II, with nearly 60 million people displaced by war, persecution, disaster or extreme poverty. Nearly 20 million of these displaced individuals are refugees who have crossed national borders.

NEPAL | Earthquakes, Political Instability

Scientists believe the April and May 2015 earthquakes “unzipped” the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, which had been locked for a decade, making strong earthquakes in the future a likely possibility.

IRAQ | Conflict, Internally Displaced People (IDPs)

Iraq, already suffering from nearly a decade and a half of war, is now menaced by the threat of the Islamic State (ISIS), which expanded its activities from Syria to a significant swath of northern Iraq, including Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul.

CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN | Impact of El Niño, Climate Change

Warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures associated with El Niño are causing the worst drought in decades in Central America and Haiti, where about 2.5 million people have experienced food shortages and are in need of urgent assistance.

SAHEL REGION OF WEST AFRICA | Drought, Conflict

Conflict and poor harvests are driving hunger for more than 20 million people in the Sahel region of West Africa. The effects of El Niño may exacerbate the crisis. In addition, there are approximately 3.5 million displaced people in the Sahel, more than twice the total of last year.

SOUTH SUDAN | Conflict, Extreme Poverty

South Sudan, which became an independent nation in 2011, has been engulfed in a civil war since December 2013 that has killed 50,000 and displaced nearly 2 million people, in addition to those who have entered the country to flee violence in neighboring Sudan.

Where We Signs of Hope:

COLOMBIA | Peace Agreement

A peace accord between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), hammered out over the past few years in Havana, is expected to be signed in March 2016.

THE PHILIPPINES | Resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction

In November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines, killing more than 6,300 people, damaging or destroying at least 1 million homes and devastating crops. Since that disaster, international humanitarian organizations have worked closely with the Government of the Philippines and local partners to improve disaster readiness through measures such as early warning systems, clear evacuation procedures and pre-positioned aid supplies.

THE PROMISE OF COFFEE AND COCOA IN HAITI, EAST AFRICA, CENTRAL AMERICA, INDONESIA | Smallholder Farmers Increasing Income

Coffee and cocoa have the potential to be significant cash crops for smallholder farmers, allowing them to generate more income and lift themselves out of poverty by connecting with domestic and international markets. In Haiti, international aid organizations are assisting farmers in reviving a once-flourishing coffee and cocoa sector.